A total of 37 Senate seats are up for grabs this year. The current composition of the US Senate is 59 Democrats (two of whom are actually independents who caucus with the Dems) and 41 Republicans.
What follows are my predictions for each Senate race. First, the seats currently held by Democrats (of which there are 19):
Connecticut: Dick Blumenthal (D) vs. Linda McMahon (R)
Despite the fact that Blumenthal a) lied repeatedly about serving in Vietnam, b) apparently has no idea how private sector jobs are created, and c) looks sorta creepy, he is well ahead in the polls. Blumenthal by 8, Dem Hold
Delaware: Chris Coons (Marxist-Democrat) vs. Christine O’Donnell (Wiccan-Republican)
This is Joe Biden’s old seat. Mike Castle would have won this election easily. Let’s just say the Tea Party overreached a little bit by nominating the cute-but-kooky chick with the blank résumé. Coons by 14, Dem Hold
Illinois: Alexi Giannoulias (D) vs. Mark Kirk (R)
This is Barack Obama’s old seat. Giannoulias is a mob banker. You’d think that would disqualify him for election to such a high office, but remember that this is Illinois. He is, however, currently trailing in the polls. Kirk by 3, GOP Pickup
Indiana: Dan Coats (R) vs. Brad Ellsworth (D)
Dan Coats is headed back to the Senate. Coats by 18, GOP Pickup
North Dakota: John Hoeven (R) vs. Tracy Potter (D)
Potter’s website is here. Check it out sometime. You could even be the site’s 100th visitor! Hoeven by 38, GOP Pickup
West Virginia: Joe Manchin (D) vs. John Raese (R)
This is the Senate seat that was held by Robert Byrd for about 9,000 years until he died earlier this year. Manchin is West Virginia’s popular Governor. He was for ObamaCare before he was against it. Since President Obama is about as popular in West Virginia as black lung, and Raese is doing everything he can to nationalize the election, this is a very competitive race. Raese by 2, GOP Pickup
Pennsylvania: Joe Sestak (D) vs. Pat Toomey (R)
This race has tightened, but Toomey still has the lead. I wonder if Obama will offer Sestak a job if he loses? Toomey by 6, GOP Pickup
Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln (D) vs. John Boozman (R)
Lincoln is going to experience the kind of defeat that Senate incumbents almost never suffer. Boozman by 22, GOP Pickup
California: Barbara Boxer (D) vs. Carly Fiorina (R)
In a just world, everyone would be calling Barbara Boxer “ma’am” beginning next January. Alas, life is not always fair, and sometimes horrible human beings who are bereft of any actual accomplishments other than duping stoned idiot voters every six years win in the end. Boxer by 4, Dem Hold
Colorado: Ken Buck (R) vs. Michael Bennet (D)
It’s definitely close, but Buck is tied or ahead in every single recent poll. Buck by 2, GOP Pickup
Hawaii: Daniel Inouye (D) vs. Cam Cavasso (R)
Inouye has been in the Senate since 1962. To put that in perspective, Hawaii has only been a state since 1959. This race is a rematch; Inouye faced Cavasso in 2004, and won by…55 points. Not much polling has been done for this race because it is assumed to be a safe seat for the Democrats. However, I expect the results to be quite a bit closer than six years ago. Inouye by 20, Dem Hold
Maryland: Barbara Mikulski (D) vs. Eric Wargotz (R)
Fear not, D&D fans. The Senate’s lone Hill Dwarf is safe for another six years. Mikulski by 21, Dem Hold
Nevada: Harry Reid (D) vs. Sharron Angle (R)
The only reason this one is close at all is due to the fact the Republicans nominated a gaffe-prone right-winger with an apparent speech impediment. Harry Reid is easily one of the most hated politicians in the country; he has no business getting reelected. Thankfully, Angle has been able to raise a ton of money, she won their only debate, and she holds a slim lead in the latest polls. Angle by 3, GOP Pickup
New York: Kirsten Gillibrand (D) vs. Joseph DioGuardi (R)
This one would have been competitive if Pataki or Giuliani had thrown his hat into the ring, but neither of them did. This seat is up for election again in 2012, so maybe then. Gillibrand by 16, Dem Hold
New York: Chuck Schumer (D) vs. Jay Townsend (R)
Sigh. Schumer by 30, Dem Hold
Oregon: Ron Wyden (D) vs. Jim Huffman (R)
Wyden will win, but don’t be surprised if it’s relatively close. Wyden by 10, Dem Hold
Vermont: Patrick Leahy (D) vs. Len Britton (R)
I understand there is a movement in Vermont to secede from the rest of the country. I’m okay with that. Leahy by 34, Dem Hold
Washington: Patty Murray (D) vs. Dino Rossi (R)
Patty Murray has been in the Senate for 18 years, but she hasn’t really accomplished much of anything. When I think of Murray, the only thing memorable that comes to mind is her praising Osama bin Laden for his supposed charitable work not long after 9/11. Dino Rossi was absolutely robbed in the 2004 gubernatorial election. Murray has a slight lead in the most recent polls, but it is extremely close. This could very well be the election that determines who controls the Senate in the 112th Congress, and we may not know the winner until the wee hours of the morning…or several days later. Hopefully Rossi learned his lesson from 2004 and has a few thousand lawyers ready to be airdropped into King County on November 3rd. Rossi by less than 1, GOP Pickup
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold (D) vs. Ron Johnson (R)
I’m really quite surprised that this race isn’t closer. Every major poll except one since September has Johnson ahead by at least six, and the lone outlier still has him up by two. Johnson by 6, GOP Pickup
Now, the seats currently held by Republicans (of which there are 18):
Florida: Charlie Crist (I) vs. Marco Rubio (R) vs. Kendrick Meek (D)
Rubio hasn’t polled below 39% in a major poll since the beginning of September. Couple that with the fact that Crist hasn’t polled higher than 33% since early September and Meek has polled steadily between 16% and 24% since July, and it’s almost impossible for Rubio to lose. Rubio by 10, GOP Hold (P.S. – I’m a Florida voter, so I figured I’d throw in some additional “analysis” of the candidates. Kendrick Meek is too left-wing for my taste, but he honestly seems like a decent guy. Marco Rubio is presidential timber. He’s young (just 39), so keep an eye on him. Charlie Crist, on the other hand, is soulless, opportunistic scum. But hey, now that his political career is almost over, Crist can look forward to spending more time at home with his “wife.” LOL.)
Kansas: Jerry Moran (R) vs. Lisa Johnston (D)
This won’t be close. Moran by 40, GOP Hold
Kentucky: Rand Paul (R) vs. Jack Conway (D)
Paul has been ahead almost the entire campaign. Conway’s recent attempts to portray Paul as some sort of pagan death cult member appear not to have worked. Paul by 8, GOP Hold
Missouri: Roy Blunt (R) vs. Robin Carnahan (D)
Look at the polling. Blunt hasn’t trailed in a poll since…2009. Blunt by 10, GOP Hold
New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte (R) vs. Paul Hodes (D)
Ayotte has not trailed in a poll…ever. Ayotte by 8, GOP Hold
Ohio: Rob Portman (R) vs. Lee Fisher (D)
Fisher is just getting annihilated in the polls. Four years ago he won a statewide election with 61% of the vote to become Ohio’s Lieutenant Governor. This year he may not even get 41% of the vote against a former Bush administration official. Ouch. Portman by 18, GOP Hold
Utah: Mike Lee (R) vs. Sam Granato (D)
No contest. Lee by 32, GOP Hold
Alaska: Joe Miller (R) vs. Scott McAdams (D) vs. Lisa Murkowski (Write-in)
This is probably the most difficult election to predict, because it’s so hard to poll a three-way race with a credible (in fact, an incumbent) write-in candidate. Recent polls suggest that Miller and Murkowski are roughly tied, with McAdams a distant third. If it stays this close on Election Day, expect a long, drawn-out legal battle over misspelled write-in ballots and such. But in a way it doesn’t really matter whether Miller or Murkowski wins, since either one will caucus with the GOP. I want Miller to win because a) he’s the more conservative candidate and b) Murkowski is a sore loser who thinks she owns that Senate seat because her daddy gave it to her. Miller by 1, GOP Hold
Alabama: Richard Shelby (R) vs. William Barnes (D)
Yawn. Shelby by 28, GOP Hold
Arizona: John McCain (R) vs. Rodney Glassman (D)
This one would have been a lot more interesting if J. D. Hayworth had won the Republican nomination. McCain by 20, GOP Hold
Georgia: Johnny Isakson (R) vs. Michael Thurmond (D)
Remember when Democrats could win in Georgia? Isakson by 26, GOP Hold
Idaho: Mike Crapo (R) vs. Tom Sullivan (D)
Sullivan has to hope that Crapo is found in bed with a dead girl or a live boy sometime in the next five days. Crapo by 42, GOP Hold
Iowa: Charles Grassley (R) vs. Roxanne Conlin (D)
Zzz. Grassley by 22, GOP Hold
Louisiana: David Vitter (R) vs. Charlie Melancon (D)
Eliot Spitzer is sooo jealous! Vitter by 10, GOP Hold
North Carolina: Richard Burr (R) vs. Elaine Marshall (D)
No one has been able to explain to me why Burr is viewed as weak, or why he is allegedly unpopular. He has not trailed in a single poll. Burr by 14, GOP Hold
Oklahoma: Tom Coburn (R) vs. Jim Rogers (D)
Rogers looks like a homeless man. He does not appear to have a campaign website. Coburn by 48, GOP Hold
South Carolina: Jim DeMint (R) vs. Alvin Greene (D)
Greene has a lot going for him: He’s unemployed, he lives with his parents, he’s been indicted on a felony charge of showing porn to a teenager, and he appears to be mentally retarded. In other words, he has a lot in common with his party’s base. [Rimshot!] DeMint by 44, GOP Hold
South Dakota: John Thune (R) [uncontested]
This is the only uncontested Senate seat this election cycle. Thune by 99, GOP Hold
So. My prediction is that the GOP will hold on to all 18 of their Senate seats that are up for election. Additionally, the GOP will pick off 10 of the 19 Senate seats that Democrats currently control that are up for election this year. If this result comes to pass, the GOP would control 51 Senate seats in the 112th Congress, just enough for a majority.